ADA/USD April 24 – More downside risk, chance of 0.80

BTC options expiry on top of general weakness in BTC led BTC under the key price level of $49k down to $47.5k, pulling the crypto market down with it.

Yesterday’s forecast of dropping to 1.03 was far exceeded as prices flash crashed to 0.92 before eventually returning to the 1.11 fib region.

Today expect sideways action with a downward bias, and risk of another test of 1.03 or 1.00. Prices can easily fall below 1.00 if BTC does not stay above $49k. If $49k does not hold and drops near $44k, ADA/USD prices may drop to 0.89 and as low as 0.80. Such a drop would signal a bear cycle. With yesterday’s price action, a breakout to the upside may not occur now until the end of May.

Intraday (next 24 hours)
Summary: Ranging between 1.16 and 1.03 with downward pressure to lower prices

3H – Green EMA and RSI have crossed above level 50, but with limited upward momentum. Prices likely to stay under 1.18 and return to 1.11 region.

6H – Despite high white EMA , green EMA only just above level 50 and descending. With RSI and LSMA low, prices may not reach the yellow basis line (1.19), and instead stay between lower white and lower aqua B-Bands (1.13 to 1.09)

12H – White EMA is just over level 50 and green EMA has crossed above RSI , but RSI and LSMA continue to descend. Very little upward momentum to counteract the prevailing downward momentum. Prices likely around lower aqua B-Band (1.08) and possibly back to the 1.03 region.

1D – LSMA has crossed below level 50 and B-Bands are widening. Other indicators are low and flat suggesting prices staying between the lower white and lower aqua B-bands, with a bias towards the lower aqua (or below). 1.16 to 1.04

Multiday (rest of this weekend)

Summary: Prices around 1.11 then test of 1.03 and 1.00. Stronger risk of drop below 1.00 to 0.80 in several days.

2D through 4D all show white and green EMA well below level 50, and in all cases green EMA is below red RSI , showing downward pressure for the next several days. Prices will be pressured to move to the lower white B-Band, which is around 1.11 in the next 24 hours, but around 1.00 in the 4D (3 days left)

In the 5D chart the green EMA has dropped to 45 with 2 days left. Without a turnaround in prices in the next 48 hours, prices can be expected to again drop to 1.00 or below in the next 2-3 days

Yesterday’s crash has increased the risk of ADA/USD dropping below 1.00 and continuing down as low as 0.80 in the next week. Price action this weekend and new charts when the week starts Monday morning will indicate whether that is likely.

Looking at the 8D and 11D charts (with 8 days left), any chance to rally to new ATH’s does not look likely now until May 24th.

Good luck and good fortune!