The recent Bitcoin correction corresponded very well with the mid-channel support line, than channel from which we have seen a majority of the price action over the last two halving periods. Looking at the number of days after the most recent halving date, the date of this correction corresponds well with the two recent halving periods. This lead me to take a deeper look at a possible playing out. So far this halving period the price action has very closely matched the equivalent data post-2016 halving.
To illustrate this I have taken price data from the 2016 halving date until the following $20,000 peak, and superimposed this pattern, in green, onto data since the 2020 halving date. Similarly, in red I superimpose data from the $20k peak until the 2020 halving date. Using the approach a peak Bitcoin price of $250,000 is predicted in August 2021.
This analysis is very simplistic, ignoring many key variables, and should therefore only be viewed for interest only.